DETECTING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS BY DESIGNED BREAK-INDICATOR SATURATION

Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-indicator Saturation

We present a methodology for detecting breaks at any point in time-series regression models using an indicator saturation approach, applied here to modelling climate change. Building on recent developments in econometric model selection for more variables than observations, we saturate a regression model with a full set of designed break functions. By selecting over these break functions using ...

Volcanic Eruptions

Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation

To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a ‘split-half’ analysis, the simplest specialization of a multiple-path block-search algorithm. Monte Carlo simu...

Excitation of atmospheric oscillations by volcanic eruptions

We investigated the mechanism of atmospheric oscillations with periods of about 300 s which were observed for the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1982 E1 Chich6n eruptions. Two distinct spectral peaks, at T=270 and 230 s for the Pinatubo eruption and at T=195 and 266 s for the E1 Chich6n eruptions, have been reported. We found similar oscillations for the 1980 Mount St. Helens and the 1883 Krakatoa erupt...

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone-depleting chemicals, it is crucial to ...